Welcome to
Pheno Mismatch
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The Science

The timing and synchrony of seasonal events presents real challenges in the natural world.

  • Departure

    When to go?

    Migratory birds coordinate their departure from wintering grounds in Central or South America to arrive at North American breeding grounds at just the right time.

  • Timing

    Not Yet

    If birds leave too early, they risk experiencing severe weather from late frosts or blizzards.

  • Timing

    Missed Opportunity

    If birds leave too late, they risk missing the peak in early spring insects that they depend on to successfully raise offspring.

  • Insects

    Emergence

    Insects such as butterflies also benefit when their emergence coincides with the springtime flush of new plant growth.

  • Phenological Mismatch

    Springtime shift

    The timing of spring has been shifting earlier in recent years, and this raises the possibility of mismatches in spring timing between birds, insects, and plants.

  • Existing Research

    Small Scale

    Local-scale studies have documented specific instances of phenological mismatch but fail to inform how mismatch consequences propagate across spatial, temporal, or trophic scales.

  • Our Research

    Macrosystems

    We received funding by the National Science Foundation to examine phenological mismatch across three trophic levels in eastern North America.

  • What
    Happens
    Next?

    Next Steps

    Come back to learn more as we conduct our research.

History

Learn about the research that led up to our NSF-funded project.

The Paper

The collaborative paper that started it all:
Mayor, S.J, R.P. Guralnick, M.W. Tingley, J. Otegui, J.C. Withey, S.C. Elmendorf, M.E. Andrew, S. Leyk, I.S. Pearse, & D.C. Schneider. 2017. Increasing asynchrony between arrival of migratory birds and spring green-up. Scientific Reports, 7:1902.

The Video

Watch an introduction to the issue.

The Press

This important subject has been covered in articles published by the National Audubon Society, Phys.org, and The Washington Post.

Our Team

Primary Investigators

Allen Hurlbert

Allen Hurlbert

University of North Carolina

Leslie Ries

Leslie Ries

Georgetown University

Morgan Tingley

Morgan Tingley

University of Connecticut

Co-investigators

Ali Arab

Ali Arab

Georgetown University

Rob Guralnick

Rob Guralnick

University of Florida

Raphael Lafrance

Raphael Lafrance

University of Florida

Elise Larson

Elise Larsen

Georgetown University

Stephen Mayor

Stephen Mayor

Ontario Forest Research Institute

Dave Miller

Dave Miller

Pennsylvania State University

Naresh Neupane

Naresh Neupane

Georgetown University

Jim Saracco

Jim Saracco

Institute for Bird Populations

Rodney Siegel

Rodney Siegel

Institute for Bird Populations

Jacob Socolar

Jacob Socolar

University of Connecticut

John Withey

John Withey

Evergreen College

Sarah Yelton

Sarah Yelton

University of North Carolina